What is the likelihood that the Death of the Stretch IRA legislation will pass?
This post is the seventh in a series about the Death of the Stretch IRA. If you’re a new visitor to my blog, this post might not make much sense to you unless you back up and read the preceding posts related this one. Those posts spell out the details of the proposed legislation that will cost your family a lot of money. This post discusses the reasons I believe it is very likely that this legislation will pass.
To be fair, my critics point out that this idea has been brought up many times before, but hasn’t yet passed. I can’t argue with them on that point. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus was the first major proponent of the idea, proposing the elimination of the Stretch IRA as part of the Highway Investment Job Creation and Economic Growth Act of 2012. The American Bar Association followed suit in 2013, recommending their elimination as part of a tax simplification proposal to the Senate and House tax-writing committees. And President Obama was very much behind the idea, including it in every one of his budget proposals since 2013. Even though it’s been proposed over and over again, it’s never passed. So why am I saying it is likely to pass, and soon?
The Politics of the Death of the Stretch IRA
When the idea was first proposed to the Senate by Max Baucus in 2012, it was defeated by an uncomfortably close margin of only 51-49. That vote, interestingly, was mostly along political party lines. President Obama presented the idea in every one of his budget proposals since 2013, but couldn’t get it past a House of Representatives that was controlled by the Republican Party. But on September 21, 2016, the Senate Committee on Finance voted 26-0 to effectively kill the Stretch IRA. And what was especially interesting about that vote was that it had unanimous bipartisan support.
So why isn’t it the law now? Well, think back to what it was going on in the fall of 2016. The nation was locked in a tumultuous political battle over who would be our next President, and Congress was busy dealing with allegations of malfeasance by both candidates. And before we knew it, the election came and went, and then the 114th United States Congress quietly adjourned without ever having time to consider the Finance Committee’s recommendation.
Is the Stretch IRA safe?
Does this mean, then, that the possibility of the Death of the Stretch IRA is overblown? I don’t think so, and here’s why. With the exception of Senators Schumer and Coats, all of the veteran members Finance Committee of the 114th Congress received the same Committee assignment after the election last fall. That means that 24 out of the 26 individuals who voted to recommend this legislation to the 114th session of Congress are in a position to make the same recommendation to the new Congress. And do you really believe that, considering the current political climate, it’s likely that they’re going to change their minds?
Trump and the Death of the Stretch IRA
What about the fact that we’ve got a new (and very rich) President? Won’t he protect his own ass(ets) by fighting the Death of the Stretch IRA? With the exception of an Executive Order, the President doesn’t create laws. He signs (or vetoes) legislation that has been voted on by Congress. However, President Trump has made several campaign promises that, if he has any hope of making good on them, will require a lot of money. The nation is already dangerously in debt, so borrowing to finance them could mean political suicide for him. However, the President has also promised to simplify the nation’s overly complicated tax code. It seems quite possible to me that, in exchange for getting Congress’ support on a major tax reform issue, he might have to compromise and allow the Death of the Stretch IRA legislation to be a part of the overhaul. It’s all in the art of the deal!
Please stop back soon for my next post on this important legislation!
For more information on this topic, please visit our Death of the Stretch IRA resource.
P.S. Did you miss a video blog post? Here are the past video blog posts in this video series.