As we go to press, markets remain turbulent, primarily due to the confusing and unpredictable tariffs, the concerns over a slowing global economy, the threat of inflation and/or a recession. The president’s sweeping tariffs and subsequent adjustments to those plans continue to generate confusion and volatility.

Economic analysts might have some disagreements about the wisdom of tariffs, but the vast majority seem to be strongly against the strategy as implemented to date. Elon Musk notably criticized White House trade advisor Peter Navarro, calling him “truly a moron” and “dumber than a sack of bricks,” before humorously apologizing—to the bricks.

But as investors we have very little control over these big picture concerns. This can generate a lot of anxiety. So, the ongoing question is “Now What?”

In a recent communication to our email newsletter subscribers, I discussed the concept of “personal inflation.” I am concerned about a sharp rise in inflation, which means we’ll pay more money for goods and services precisely when our stock portfolios are down. Ideally, we have sufficient income and/or non-equity investments to cover our expenses until markets stabilize.

However, there is no guarantee of a quick or even long-term recovery even if historically, trends generally support eventual rebounds.

That said most analysts I’m reading continue to advise against a significant sell-off of U.S. equity positions.

To present a more balanced perspective, I searched for respected economists supporting the administration’s current tariff strategies. Even the economist initially cited by the White House to justify the tariff plan now says Trump has “got it very wrong.”

The tariffs and their tumultuous roll-out have strained Sino-American relations and alienated many of our traditional allies as well. Notably, The Wall Street Journal op-ed page, typically cautious in its economic criticisms, recently published an editorial titled U.S. Tariffs Make Xi Jinping’s Day, underscoring global tensions exacerbated by our trade policies.

While we confront internal debates and uncertainty, China is aggressively investing in its future, and exerting its economic influence across the globe, including in many of the nations that may be hardest hit by our (currently temporarily suspended) tariffs.

With Chinese government backing, Huawei has spent the last three years constructing a massive new research complex roughly the size of 225 football fields, capable of housing labs for 35,000 scientists, engineers, and technology specialists. In contrast, we are currently in the process of making huge cuts to scientific research, healthcare, higher education, and AI development. That doesn’t bode well for our long-term competitiveness and innovation. But once again, as individual investors we have little control over these major setbacks or advances. So, “Now What?”

Jason Zweig of The Wall Street Journal recently wrote an insightful piece titled Trump Just Shredded the Economic Playbook. Here Are Your Next Investing Moves. Zweig emphasizes the importance of avoiding hasty actions that we might later regret. Among his cautions is the regret investors could feel down the line if they were to exit the market entirely right now or put too much money in. Selling in a falling market locks in your losses, conversely, aggressively pouring money in amid uncertainty assumes your ability to judge when a stock is offering a great deal.

Interestingly, Zweig suggests one prudent step would be temporarily reducing your expenditures. While that advice sounds very reasonable, most of our clients already spend far less than they can comfortably afford. And I hate the idea that the current economic climate might cause them, or even my wife Cindy, to defer meaningful experiences like family vacations out of financial anxiety.

Zweig does offer some long-term hope, noting historical market recoveries typically follow periods of tariff reductions or policy stabilization. To some extent, that just happened when the market jumped up in reaction to Trump’s tariff pull back, although the increased tariffs on China, triggered another fall. As we have been saying, the unpredictability is causing extreme volatility.

Holding a long-term perspective was also the recommendation of Jack Bogle, the late founder and CEO of Vangard, spoke frequently about “reversion to the mean,” observing that down markets usually bounce back over time. While these insights offer some comfort, certainty remains elusive in the current environment.

That said, I still think the best strategy you can follow now is to develop a thoughtful financial plan, avoid rash decisions in times of stress (that goes for life decisions as well as financial decisions), and try to stay focused on your long-term goals. I really wish I could predict the future, but neither I nor the analysts nor the pundits have a crystal ball.

Given the seemingly constant barrage of unsettling news, perhaps it is a good time to revisit a strategy I suggested in a prior newsletter: consider taking a short “news fast” and focusing, at least temporarily, on more uplifting and personal priorities.